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This road or that one?

As we are in a very unpredictable period, managing for uncertainties and pockets of volatility will probably be among the most important skills required to shun some of the challenges we are likely to encounter.

Among the most effective methods for doing so in business and for that matter during any crisis period is scenario planning and analysis by asking a series of “what ‘ifs”.

What if sales slowdown? What if cash runs out? What if I have to reduce prices? What if it gets worse? What if it gets better? What if it doesn’t worsen nor improve? Each of these you would realize by now would have stimulated a measure of critical thinking and simultaneously demanded a response.

Under each question, note the responses, estimate the possible cost or for that matter the possible loss. Don’t limit the possible outcomes; note them all and please, don’t try to answer all the "what ifs" alone. Seek professional opinions.

Inevitability, there will be situations of varying intensities, requiring different responses. Some immediate and urgent, others of a more medium to long term nature.

Use the responses to set out alternative plans of action (scenarios) within which to act depending on the severity forecasted. Great for peace of mind and effective for managing scarce resources.

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